Conservatism's Greatest Challenge -- And Opportunity

Hey, conservatives, ready for even more depressing news?

by: david bozeman | published: 03 24, 2010

According to recent population projections, by at least mid-century, whites will be the minority racial group in America. These figures are not new, and, if one follows enlightened thinking, they really don't matter.

But the problem for conservatives is -- they do. Non-whites overwhelmingly vote for Democrats, and the GOP's lock on America's center -- yielding five out of six presidential elections from 1968 to 1988, including two 49-state landslides -- is not going to disappear at some abstract point in mid-century, it already has. Beginning with 1992, Democrats have won popular majorities in four of the last 5 elections, and California, the Golden State of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan and source of roughly 1/5 of the electoral votes needed to elect a president, is routinely written off by Republican nominees, with, largely, its non-white voters deciding their state's and America's future.

According to Pew Research, the U.S. population will swell by a hundred million to 438 million in 2050, and mostly Hispanics and their American-born offspring will comprise about 80% of that growth. Indeed, demographics and an Obama-nized political culture do not bode well for conservatism in the years to come.

None of which suggests, however, that conservatism should be abandoned or even compromised. Simply, a re-ordering of priorities and a tempering of message may be in order. For instance, many conservatives wrongly think the election of Barack Obama has closed the book on racial inequality as an issue, while African Americans see it as but an important chapter in an ongoing saga. While the GOP has proven it can win without the African American vote, most minority groups share the same passions for social justice, and conservatism must speak to those concerns. The right responds well to hard economics and national security issues but not as well to 'kitchen table' matters such as education, health care, poverty, homelessness, etc. With traditional families on the decline, as well, more Americans will look to their leaders, if not for solutions, then for leadership and empathy. Quite simply, most ethnic and racial minorities do not share conservatives' cynicism of big government. Many see it as a guarantor, however unreliable, of justice. And therein lies an opportunity to show that government, while necessary to ensure Constitutional protections, typically promotes dependency, poverty and broken families. It is conservative, compassionate and politically viable to cede power back to individuals and families and neighborhoods

The mid-term elections are heating up, with conservative Republicans preaching lower taxes and less government to their base. They can perhaps eke out a few more victories on the fumes of Reagan's 1980s stump speeches, but conservatism in the 21st Century must resonate with people who don't traditionally see big government as an enemy. Reagan connected with the electorate of his day so successfully that a new voting bloc -- Reagan Democrats -- changed the face of politics for a generation. George W. Bush was an early presidential favorite, in part, because he garnered significant numbers of Hispanic and African American votes to become governor of Texas. He even carried roughly 1/4 of the Hispanic vote in 2004, which, of course, switched to Obama in 2008. So, the task ahead for conservatives, while daunting, is not impossible. With as least half of Americans opposed to Obama-care and the current administration hell bent on arrogance and hubris, the ideological champions of American exceptionalism may yet stand a chance.

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